MLB · public signal
Hardball Signal
It owns
- Independently calculated MLB metrics from event-level history: 12,148 regular-season games, 2021–2025, plus the 2025 postseason
- CORE — contextual rate impact per role-standard workload (batting, pitching, baserunning lanes)
- CROWN — cumulative value above a role-specific replacement baseline, published provisional with fielding and catching openly NULL
- PULSE — descriptive recent form with transparent windows (its own forward test is the page lede)
- SIGNAL — the six-axis evidence-reliability profile; the overall band is the minimum across axes
It deliberately does not own
- Anything Statcast-derived — the seam is built and tested, and blocked until a lawful source is admitted
- The current season — 2026 is not included, and the coverage line says so
- Team strength boards — that is Rinehart Ratings
- Referenced proprietary analytics — clearly separated from what it computes itself
- Fantasy values or market prices — private territory of Roster Command and Hedgebook
The claim ladder
The registry is the claim ladder
Twenty-one metrics live in a declarative registry, each carrying one of the family statuses: concept, scaffold, research, provisional, validated, or blocked. Today that reads zero validated, one provisional, eleven research, nine concept — served in the site's own machine-readable status file, which is exactly where SIGNAL's status rail reads it from.
Its tournament culture publishes losses: the park-adjustment arm failed its threshold and shipped as a failed arm; the pitching challengers dissolved into intervals spanning zero and were relabeled accordingly; the EWMA form challenger lost to transparent windows and the retained baseline is the story; a baserunning shrinkage arm beat the unpooled baseline and still was not promoted.
Corrections are versioned
Corrections ship as successors, never silent rewrites
The v1 release is immutable at its tag. When an adversarial audit found defects — a form test that had leaked target information, an overclaimed conservation statement, an impossible innings display — the fixes shipped as versioned successor artifacts (v1.1, the “Evidence-corrected release”) with every predecessor preserved alongside. The product's own release-notes page renders that history from its machine-readable artifacts.
Current state
RESEARCH PREVIEW v1.1 · release 8a5605c933c1
Data through: 2025-09-28
Builder verdict: DEPLOYED · SHARE-READY RESEARCH PRODUCT (final report 2026-08-08). v1.1 "Evidence-corrected release"; nothing is validated yet by its own registry: 1 provisional, 11 research, 9 concept. 2021–2025 seasons; the current season is not included.
Artifact build: 8a5605c
MANUAL SUPPLEMENT the product-level status band and builder verdict live in repo release docs; the artifact now owns release identity and version label but carries per-metric statuses only Fields: productStatus, publicNote Supplement SHA256: e03e31d0bed2… Supplement source: https://hardballsignal.rodericrinehart.com/data/status.json + FINAL_REPORT_2026-08-08.md (read-only recon 2026-08-08; production deployment 94f6fefd commit-verified) Supplement verified: Aug 8, 2026 · 8:30 PM ET
SRC hardballsignal.rodericrinehart.com/data/status.json + SIGNAL manifest (status band) MODE public artifact (state stamp from manifest) SHA256 1146b587930f… SIGNAL VERIFIED Aug 9, 2026 · 8:00 AM ET
Hardball Signal methodology Validation & tournaments Data & sources Release notes Shared CORE philosophy Its research in Signal Lab