MLB · public signal

Hardball Signal

Who created MLB value — at what rate, in what role, and how sure can we be? Hardball Signal splits rate from volume from form, grades its own evidence, and draws a hard line between what it calculates and what it merely references — with a registry where, so far, nothing claims to be validated.

STATUS UNAVAILABLE Open Hardball Signal

It owns

Independently calculated MLB metrics from event-level history: 12,148 regular-season games, 2021–2025, plus the 2025 postseason
CORE — contextual rate impact per role-standard workload (batting, pitching, baserunning lanes)
CROWN — cumulative value above a role-specific replacement baseline, published provisional with fielding and catching openly NULL
PULSE — descriptive recent form with transparent windows (its own forward test is the page lede)
SIGNAL — the six-axis evidence-reliability profile; the overall band is the minimum across axes

It deliberately does not own

Anything Statcast-derived — the seam is built and tested, and blocked until a lawful source is admitted
The current season — 2026 is not included, and the coverage line says so
Team strength boards — that is Rinehart Ratings
Referenced proprietary analytics — clearly separated from what it computes itself
Fantasy values or market prices — private territory of Roster Command and Hedgebook

The claim ladder

The registry is the claim ladder

21 metrics live in a declarative registry, each carrying one of the family statuses: concept, scaffold, research, provisional, validated, or blocked. Today that reads 0 validated · 1 provisional · 11 research · 9 concept — served in the site's own machine-readable status file, which is exactly where SIGNAL's status rail reads it from.

Its tournament culture publishes losses: the park-adjustment arm failed its threshold and shipped as a failed arm; the pitching challengers dissolved into intervals spanning zero and were relabeled accordingly; the EWMA form challenger lost to transparent windows and the retained baseline is the story; a baserunning shrinkage arm beat the unpooled baseline and still was not promoted.

Corrections are versioned

Corrections ship as successors, never silent rewrites

The v1 release is immutable at its tag. When an adversarial audit found defects — a form test that had leaked target information, an overclaimed conservation statement, an impossible innings display — the fixes shipped as versioned successor artifacts (v1.1, the “Evidence-corrected release”) with every predecessor preserved alongside. The product's own release-notes page renders that history from its machine-readable artifacts.

Current state

STATUS UNAVAILABLE SIGNAL could not verify a value and refuses to guess.

Data through: 2025-09-28

Technical verification details

Release: v1.1 · release ef0a92ea407a — SIGNAL supplement, not a live production probe
Artifact build: ef0a92e
Deployed build identity: manual authority expired — status unavailable
Analytical certification: manual authority expired — status unavailable
Model status: 0 validated · 1 provisional · 11 research · 9 concept
Data through (producer claim): 2025-09-28
Staged (producer clock): Aug 21, 2026 · 9:08 PM ET
Capture attempt (capture clock): Aug 27, 2026 · 5:08 PM ET · accepted

MANUAL VERIFICATION the product-level status band and builder verdict live in repo release docs; the artifact now owns release identity and version label but carries per-metric statuses only Fields: productStatus, publicNote Supplement SHA256: a4c432c9c3a3… Supplement source: https://hardballsignal.rodericrinehart.com/data/status.json + Hardball Signal repo docs/releases/2026-08-09_HARDBALL_SIGNAL_PUBLIC_PRODUCT_RECOVERY_REPORT.md (read-only recon 2026-08-12; production deployment b29c714b from f48c870b6839) Supplement verified: Aug 12, 2026 · 11:16 AM ET · Method: automated capture of the public artifact named in sourceRef; any declared manual fields are hashed separately

SRC hardballsignal.rodericrinehart.com/data/status.json + SIGNAL manifest (status band) MODE public artifact (state stamp from manifest) SHA256 b343e5260750… SIGNAL VERIFIED Aug 27, 2026 · 5:08 PM ET

Hardball Signal methodology Validation & tournaments Data & sources Release notes Shared CORE philosophy Its research in Signal Lab